PENGARUH POPULATION SIZE TERHADAP PENERIMAAN PAJAK DAERAH: ANALISIS DATA PANEL PADA 24 KABUPATEN/KOTA DI SULAWESI SELATAN TAHUN 2020–2024 DALAM PERSPEKTIF FISCAL CAPACITY THEORY
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Abstract
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh jumlah penduduk terhadap penerimaan pajak daerah pada 24 kabupaten/kota di Sulawesi Selatan periode 2020–2024 dalam perspektif Teori Kapasitas Fiskal. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan desain eksplanatori dan metode analisis regresi data panel. Data yang digunakan merupakan data sekunder yang diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), laporan realisasi APBD, dan dokumen keuangan daerah terkait penerimaan pajak daerah. Variabel penelitian terdiri atas jumlah penduduk sebagai variabel independen dan penerimaan pajak daerah sebagai variabel dependen. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan Common Effect Model dan Fixed Effect Model untuk mengetahui pengaruh jumlah penduduk terhadap penerimaan pajak daerah.
Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pada Common Effect Model, jumlah penduduk berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap penerimaan pajak daerah. Namun pada Fixed Effect Model, pengaruh tersebut menjadi tidak signifikan setelah mempertimbangkan heterogenitas masing-masing daerah. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa kapasitas fiskal daerah tidak hanya dipengaruhi oleh jumlah penduduk, tetapi juga oleh karakteristik struktural dan institusional di setiap wilayah. Penelitian ini memberikan kontribusi empiris terhadap pengembangan Teori Kapasitas Fiskal serta memperluas kajian mengenai hubungan faktor demografi dan kapasitas fiskal daerah dalam konteks pemerintah daerah di Indonesia.
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